Data through May 17, 2026146d lag
Cloudtilt stagnates in dormant phase as sneaker peers outperform
Cloudtilt remains in a dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.98, indicating entrenched stagnation in the United States market. Despite past collaborations with LOEWE, such as the Cloudtilt 2.0, the brand's alpha score of -0.84 reveals a significant loss of attention compared to peers. This suggests that previous attempts to revitalize interest have not translated into sustained consumer engagement, leaving Cloudtilt vulnerable in a competitive landscape dominated by brands like Nike and Adidas.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Lack of sustained consumer engagement post-collaboration(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Sneaker Desirability - Nike vs Challengers calendar. Analyst note: persistence=98%, confidence=96%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+111.1% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Lowest desirability tier. Structural intervention required.
Desirability critically low. Existential review needed.
as of May 22, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 8 of 8 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of May 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 184% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
NormalSignal adequate -- hedge position sizing on tactical shifts.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +95.93% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
product_news(medium); market_sentiment(low)
Trend rate changed by +20.57% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of May 22, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Current Year Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=-0.5476321198427032).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine any dynamic seasonal timing shifts for Cloudtilt.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Mar 29 – Apr 12
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline