How to Read Desirability Radar

Regime changes are rare by design. The model includes a stability rule that requires a new state to persist for multiple consecutive weeks before it's confirmed. This prevents false regime changes from noisy data. Most brands stay in a regime for months.

No. Incubation simply means the brand isn't generating significant public search interest yet. For a new or niche brand, this is the expected starting state. Many of the most desirable brands started here. The question is whether the signals show potential for breakthrough.

ADI is a cross-brand comparable rank. It z-scores signals across all brands in the category at the current point in time. Think of it like class rank — it tells you where you stand vs peers right now.

Momentum is a per-brand trajectory. It tells you whether you are heating up or cooling down, regardless of where you rank among peers.

They can diverge: A brand with high Momentum but low ADI is rising fast but still behind peers (catching up). A brand with low Momentum but high ADI is coasting on past success but losing steam.

Lagging (ADI below 25) means the brand sits in the bottom tier of desirability relative to all tracked brands in the category. It doesn't mean zero demand — it means peers are significantly more desirable right now. This requires structural intervention, not tactical adjustments.

Momentum is based on the recent window, typically the last 12 weeks (configurable per category). The score combines trend, velocity, and acceleration within that window.

It is also cross-sectional: your score is normalized relative to all brands in the category at this point in time. A score of 61 means you're in the upper half of momentum among peers.

Yes. High Momentum with low ADI means the brand is catching up — rising fast but starting from behind. This is a promising signal. Conversely, low Momentum with high ADI means the brand is coasting — still ranked highly but losing steam.

A Laggard (Alpha below 0.5) means the brand is growing at less than half the rate of the overall category. If champagne searches grew 20% but Maison Elara searches grew only 8%, that's an Alpha of ~0.4 — the category is surging and the brand isn't capturing any of it. This usually points to a structural positioning problem, not a media spend issue.

The 95% CI (e.g., 1.12–1.64) gives you the range within which the true Alpha likely falls. A narrow CI means high confidence in the score. A wide CI (e.g., 0.6–2.1) means the signal is noisy — treat the point estimate with caution.

Both show a brand outperforming the category, but they differ in sustainability. Hidden Strength implies steady, organic outperformance — the brand has genuine differentiation. Hype Risk implies rapid, potentially unsustainable outperformance — often driven by a viral moment that may not translate into lasting desirability.

Magnitude is expressed in standard deviations (σ) of the signal. A 2.4σ changepoint means the signal shifted by 2.4 standard deviations from its previous level — a substantial move. Anything above 2σ is considered a strong changepoint.

It's the regime with the highest transition probability other than the current one. If a brand is in Cultural Heat with 78% stay probability and 14% Saturation Risk probability, then Saturation Risk is the "most likely next regime." It does not mean the transition will happen — only that if a transition occurs, that's the most probable destination.