Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Nike Pegasus is losing ground in the US sneaker market
Nike Pegasus is currently in a dormant regime with high stability, indicating a lack of movement in the United States market. Despite the recent launch of the Pegasus 42, search interest has not significantly increased, as evidenced by a negative alpha score of -0.36. This suggests that the product is not resonating with consumers as expected, potentially due to competitive pressures or insufficient differentiation.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: the dormant regime with high stability suggests that rebalancing now risks disrupting the existing attention baseline.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is cooling: momentum is below 40 and the brand is tracking the category, not leading it. This is not the environment to test price increases: attention data suggests the brand has no excess demand to absorb a hike.
Signal is noisy - defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Attribution
Competitive pressures and insufficient differentiation(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
No regime structure detected: all 261 weeks carry the label dormant. The current regime and its confidence describe the absence of movement, not a call. Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Sneaker Desirability - Nike vs Challengers calendar. Analyst note: persistence=95%, confidence=99%, topology=k=2 (fixed, bayesian).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-13.3% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Lowest desirability tier. Structural intervention required.
Desirability critically low. Existential review needed.
as of Oct 3, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 5 of 5 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 136% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
TurbulentSignal noisy -- defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Trend Direction
↘ BearishConviction
Trend favors defensive posture -- protect margin and brand equity.
Trend Sustainability
FatiguingMonitor closely -- begin contingency planning for reversal.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Confirmed decline
Both momentum and category performance are weak. The brand is cooling and losing ground to peers. This is a structural issue, not seasonal. Intervention required.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of October 3, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Current Year Start
Week 1
Dec 29 - Jan 4
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=-0.30448075602192654).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine any dynamic seasonal timing shifts for Nike Pegasus.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Jul 26 – Aug 9
Back to school / college sneaker demand
Window: Oct 18 – Nov 1
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline