Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Rolex GMT Master loses ground in competitive watch market
Worldwide search interest for the Rolex GMT Master is in a heating regime, yet its alpha score of 0.25 indicates it is losing ground to competitors. Recent discontinuations, such as the 'Pepsi' GMT-Master II, may have contributed to this decline in desirability. The product's current ADI score of 29.7, a significant drop of 20.8 points, underscores its weakening position relative to peers.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Lean into editorial and social placement: the brand is experiencing a heating regime but lacks organic momentum. Amplification can help regain attention.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is cooling: momentum is below 40 and the brand is tracking the category, not leading it. This is not the environment to test price increases.
Signal is noisy - defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Attribution
Discontinuation of key models(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Scale & Protect
Risk
Sticky-but-contested: heating. Current evidence suggests the regime label is contested at the current week, but if it lands here it is likely to persist. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Luxury Watches calendar. Analyst note: persistence=92%, confidence=53%, topology=k=2 (fixed, bayesian).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Flat (-0.3% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Below-average desirability. Attention needed.
Desirability fading. Reassess positioning.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Desirability is softening. Monitor for renewed traction.
Rank 5 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 75% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
TurbulentSignal noisy -- defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Trend Direction
↘ BearishConviction
Trend favors defensive posture -- protect margin and brand equity.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Momentum may flatten out - re-allocate budget if dormancy confirms.
Most likely transition: dormant (8% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Confirmed decline
Both momentum and category performance are weak. The brand is cooling and losing ground to peers. This is a structural issue, not seasonal. Intervention required.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +23.64% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
product_news(low); market_sentiment(low)
Trend rate changed by +10.98% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Aug 16 – Aug 30
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Jan 25 – Feb 8
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline