Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Augustinus Bader The Cream faces competitive pressure in US market
Augustinus Bader The Cream is currently in a dormant regime with high stability at 94.5% [91.5%, 96.9%], indicating a lack of movement. The alpha score of 0.82 suggests the product is losing ground to category peers like SK-II and Dior. Despite a moderate momentum score of 48.7, the ADI score has declined by 9.4 points, reflecting reduced relative desirability. This stagnation, amidst a competitive landscape, signals a need for strategic reassessment to regain market traction.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Lean into digital platforms where competitors are gaining traction: the current attention signals suggest a need to recapture consumer interest in these spaces.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: the product is underperforming relative to peers, indicating no excess demand to support a pricing increase.
Attribution
Competitive pressure from peers like SK-II and Dior(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
No regime structure detected: all 261 weeks carry the label dormant. The current regime and its confidence describe the absence of movement, not a call. Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Prestige Skincare calendar. Analyst note: persistence=94%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (fixed, bayesian, hierarchical). Posterior on this brand partially pools toward the category prior (T=261 weeks, deviating 1.2σ from category mean); brand-level read borrows strength from peers.
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-93.6% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Above-average desirability within the category.
Healthy desirability. Maintain current strategy.
as of Oct 3, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 3 of 11 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthLosing ground to the category.
Underperforming category. Losing 18% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +455.06% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
product_news(low); critical_media_reception(low)
Trend rate changed by -337.99% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium)
Trend rate changed by +152.51% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Mar 29 – Apr 12
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Sep 20 – Oct 4
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline