Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Champagne Krug struggles as French interest remains dormant
Champagne Krug is currently in a dormant regime with a stability score of 0.95, indicating a well-established but stagnant position in the French market. The brand's alpha score of 0.97 suggests it is underperforming against category peers, such as Moët & Chandon and Ruinart, which are experiencing breakout attention. Despite recent product releases and events, Krug's momentum score of 37.5 reflects cooling interest, and the brand has not seen significant shifts in search interest since 2021. The current demand environment is neutral, with no immediate signals for change.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Lack of significant brand-specific triggers(low confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Champagne calendar. Analyst note: persistence=95%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: France
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-11.2% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Desirability is softening. Monitor for renewed traction.
Rank 10 of 12 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthKeeping pace with the category.
Tracking with the market. No unique alpha.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +58.32% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by -21.93% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by -15.84% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +13.84% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of October 2, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Current Year Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=0.41759607614396355).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to infer any dynamic seasonal timing shifts for Krug.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Christmas gifting and celebrations
Window: Jan 25 – Feb 8
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline