Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Chanel No 5 maintains stability amidst dormant regime
Chanel No 5 is currently in a dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.91 [0.86, 0.95], indicating a firmly established position. Recent news about the reimagined Chanel No 5 Eau de Toilette bottle has not shifted its dormant status, but search interest shows modest alpha at 1.11, slightly outperforming the category. The brand's ADI score of 42.6, ranking fifth, suggests it is maintaining its desirability relative to peers.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: the brand's modest alpha indicates slight outperformance, but the dormant regime suggests no immediate pricing action.
Attribution
High stability in a dormant regime(high confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Women's Fragrance calendar. Analyst note: persistence=91%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-6.3% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Healthy momentum. Stay the course.
Rank 5 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 11% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +19.16% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +18.97% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by -14.05% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium)
Trend rate changed by -9.65% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by -5.10% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 29 – Dec 13
Holiday gifting season (biggest spike for fragrance)
Window: May 17 – May 31
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline