Demand Signal Intelligence

Women's Fragrance

Attention signal · Worldwide

We decode how attention, intent, and competitive pressure are evolving - early signals that lead demand. You decide with conviction.

A comparative intelligence read on how structured signals shape demand formation in this category.

Signal Layers

Search demand

Editorial signal

Community discourse (rolling in)

Social momentum (validation)

Last observation: September 27, 2026

Executive Brief

A decision-ready snapshot of category state, leadership, signal pressure, and the next move.

Category Statedormant

Leader

La Petite Robe Noire

ADI: 77+7.3

Holding signal momentum now requires precision, not volume.

Fastest Riser

Ysl Libre

Delta: +37.0

Monitor for near-term signal gain and competitive pressure.

Risk Signal

Coco Mademoiselle

Volatility rising

Validate signal health before scaling investment.

Recommended Move

Hold or exit

Hold or exit. Re-allocate budget to active signals.

Calibrated to regime behavior and category timing.

Desirability Ranking

Brands ranked by ADI (Guyav Demand Index). Cross-brand comparable 0-100 score.

Compare brands

#	Brand	ADIGuyav Demand Index. Cross-brand comparable score (0-100) combining velocity, alpha, and social heat.	MomentumBrand-relative momentum (0-100). Growth vs. own history, not vs. peers.	AlphaGrowth rate vs. category average. >1 = outperforming, <1 = underperforming.	RegimeHMM-detected desirability state: Emerging, Heating, Cooling, or Dormant.	StabilityProbability of staying in current regime. >80% = stable, <60% = transition likely.	VolSignal volatility. Calm = predictable. Turbulent = noisy or shifting.	DirectionTrend direction from velocity and regime signals.	ExhaustionDetects when a trend move is overextended and reversal pressure is building.
1	La Petite Robe Noire	77+7.3	100	1.66Leader	cooling	93%	normal	↘ bearish	30 OK
2	Ysl Libre	64+37.0	80	1.47Outperformer	dormant	96%	normal	↘ bearish	10 OK
3	Miss Dior	63-6.2	77	1.56Leader	cooling	86%	normal	↘ bearish	15 OK
4	La Vie Est Belle	51-12.6	64	1.34Outperformer	dormant	91%	normal	↘ bearish	7 OK
5	Chanel No 5	43+12.1	56	1.11Outperformer	dormant	91%	calm	→ neutral	6 OK
6	Jadore Dior	13-32.8	24	-0.12Laggard	cooling	89%	calm	↘ bearish	24 OK
7	Coco Mademoiselle	7-45.9	0	-0.31Laggard	dormant	88%	turbulent	↘ bearish	8 OK

Metric definitions

ADI

Guyav Demand Index. Cross-brand comparable 0-100 score combining momentum, acceleration, alpha, and supporting social attention.

Momentum

Brand-relative momentum (0-100). Measures growth vs. its own history, not vs. peers.

Alpha

Growth rate vs. category average. >1 = outperforming the market, <1 = underperforming.

Regime

HMM-detected desirability state: Emerging, Heating, Cooling, or Dormant.

Stability

Probability of staying in the current regime. >80% = stable, <60% = transition likely.

Vol

Signal volatility regime. Calm = predictable, turbulent = noisy or shifting.

Direction

Trend direction from velocity and regime signals. Bullish/neutral/bearish.

Exhaustion

Trend exhaustion score. Detects when a move is overextended and reversal pressure is building.

Strategic Positioning

Each brand plotted by comparative desirability (ADI) and category alpha. Point color shows current regime state.

How to read this chart

X-axis: ADI

Cross-brand desirability score (0-100). Measures how desirable a brand is relative to its peers right now.

Y-axis: Alpha

Category-relative growth ratio. A value above 1.0 means the brand is outperforming the category baseline.

Power Brand

High desirability, positive alpha. The brand leads the category and is still earning disproportionate demand.

Alpha Play

Lower desirability, positive alpha. The brand is outperforming the category before consolidating its position.

Mature Equity

High desirability, weak alpha. The brand has equity but is not currently outgrowing the category baseline.

Intervention

Low desirability, weak alpha. Neither rank nor relative growth is supporting the brand.

Reading the extremes

Distance from the ADI 50 midpoint and alpha 1.0 baseline matters. A brand pushed to the far top-right is both desirable and outperforming the category. Far bottom-left signals structural weakness, not a bad week. Brands clustered near the center lines are in transition. Watch for diagonal movement: top-left to top-right is a challenger earning rank; top-right to bottom-right is a leader losing relative growth.

Attention Overview

Volume (default) benchmarks brands against an anchor for cross-brand comparison. Desirability shows the deseasonalized signal per brand. Raw shows the underlying attention signal as-is. Start with the top two and expand for a deeper intelligence read.