Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Coco Mademoiselle struggles as category peers advance
Coco Mademoiselle is currently in a dormant regime with a stability score of 88.3%, indicating a firmly established position. Despite recent launches, the product's alpha score of -0.31 signifies a loss of ground to category peers. Recent news highlights the launch of Coco Mademoiselle Crush Absolu, but this has not yet translated into improved attention metrics. The brand's ADI score of 6.7, the lowest among peers, underscores its lagging desirability, suggesting that the recent product innovation has not captured consumer interest as expected. The brand must address this to prevent further erosion of market position.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is cooling: momentum is below 40 and the brand is tracking the category, not leading it. This is not the environment to test price increases: attention data suggests the brand has no excess demand to absorb a hike.
Signal is noisy - defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Attribution
Recent product launch and anniversary promotions(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Women's Fragrance calendar. Analyst note: persistence=88%, confidence=86%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+20.3% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Lowest desirability tier. Structural intervention required.
Desirability critically low. Existential review needed.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 7 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly underperforming the category, brand is at risk.
Underperforming category. Losing 131% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
TurbulentSignal noisy -- defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Trend Direction
↘ BearishConviction
Trend favors defensive posture -- protect margin and brand equity.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Confirmed decline
Both momentum and category performance are weak. The brand is cooling and losing ground to peers. This is a structural issue, not seasonal. Intervention required.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +31.88% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 15 – Nov 29
Black Friday / Cyber Week promotions
Window: Feb 1 – Feb 15
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline