Data through September 27, 202613d lag
YSL Libre maintains modest alpha despite dormant regime
YSL Libre is currently in a dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.96, indicating entrenched market positioning. Despite this, its alpha score of 1.47 suggests modest outperformance within the category. Recent news highlights the launch of new variants such as 'Libre Santal Couture,' fronted by Dua Lipa, which may contribute to maintaining interest. The brand's ADI score of 63.8 positions it as a strong contender in desirability, second only to 'La Petite Robe Noire.' This suggests YSL Libre is holding its ground but requires strategic actions to convert attention into sustained momentum.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Endorsement by Dua Lipa and new product variants(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Women's Fragrance calendar. Analyst note: persistence=96%, confidence=90%, topology=k=2 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: Worldwide
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+4.3% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Above-average desirability within the category.
Healthy desirability. Maintain current strategy.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthMomentum slowing. Consider intervention.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 2 of 7 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 47% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
NormalSignal adequate -- hedge position sizing on tactical shifts.
Trend Direction
↘ BearishConviction
Trend favors defensive posture -- protect margin and brand equity.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Risk of cooling - intervention may be needed before erosion compounds.
Most likely transition: cooling (4% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Quiet outperformance
Momentum appears weak but the brand is significantly outperforming its category peers. The market is declining - your relative position is strong. This is a defensible moat, not a crisis.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +14.14% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium); product_news(low)
Trend rate changed by +14.08% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +5.94% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Nov 15 – Nov 29
Black Friday / Cyber Week promotions
Window: May 17 – May 31
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline