Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Charlotte Tilbury Magic Cream struggles as peers gain momentum
Charlotte Tilbury Magic Cream is currently in a dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.94, indicating a lack of significant movement in United States search interest. Despite the recent reformulation and media coverage, the product's alpha score of 0.94 suggests it is underperforming against category peers like SK-II Facial Treatment Essence, which is in a breakout phase. The product's ADI score of 40.6, ranked 7th in the category, shows it is lagging behind more desirable competitors.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Lean into digital and influencer marketing: the reformulation has not yet translated into increased search interest, suggesting a need for stronger digital presence.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: the brand is not leading the category, and attention data suggests no excess demand to leverage for pricing changes.
Attribution
Reformulation and media coverage(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
No regime structure detected: all 261 weeks carry the label dormant. The current regime and its confidence describe the absence of movement, not a call. Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Prestige Skincare calendar. Analyst note: persistence=94%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (fixed, bayesian, hierarchical).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-92.8% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of Oct 3, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 8 of 11 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthKeeping pace with the category.
Tracking with the market. No unique alpha.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +512.58% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by -245.31% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium)
Trend rate changed by -181.94% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium)
Trend rate changed by -84.64% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +83.91% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Mar 29 – Apr 12
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Feb 1 – Feb 15
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline