Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Dior Capture Totale maintains steady demand amidst dormant regime
Dior Capture Totale remains in a dormant regime with high stability at 94%. Despite the lack of regime shift, the product shows modest outperformance with an alpha score of 1.32, indicating it is slightly outperforming peers in the United States. This suggests a consistent, albeit moderate, level of interest that is not currently translating into a broader momentum shift.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Attribution
Stable product interest driven by consistent branding and ambassador engagement.(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
No regime structure detected: all 261 weeks carry the label dormant. The current regime and its confidence describe the absence of movement, not a call. Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Prestige Skincare calendar. Analyst note: persistence=94%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (fixed, bayesian, hierarchical).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-93.5% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Top-tier desirability among peers.
Brand commands outsized desire. Maintain premium positioning discipline.
as of Oct 3, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Desirability is surging. Capture the window.
Rank 2 of 11 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthGrowing faster than the category.
Growing 32% faster than the category.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by -453.80% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
seasonal_cyclical(medium)
Trend rate changed by -287.88% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +150.84% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +109.73% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Mar 15 – Mar 29
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Aug 30 – Sep 13
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline