Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Dom Perignon's French search interest underperforms as peers gain
Dom Perignon is currently in a dormant regime with high stability at 92.9% [88.3, 96.6]. Despite recent collaborations with artist Damien Hirst, the brand's alpha score of 0.87 indicates it is losing attention to competitors like Moet & Chandon and Ruinart, who are experiencing breakout attention. The ADI score of 60.5, down by 10.2 points, suggests a decline in relative desirability, necessitating strategic reassessment.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Lean into digital and social media channels: the brand needs to amplify its presence to counteract the current underperformance. The Damien Hirst collaboration provides a timely narrative to engage audiences.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: despite a decline in relative desirability, the regime's high stability suggests no immediate threat to demand. However, the brand should monitor competitive dynamics closely.
Attribution
Lack of competitive differentiation(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Champagne calendar. Analyst note: persistence=93%, confidence=99%, topology=k=3 (adaptive bayesian fallback).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: France
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Flat (+0.2% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Above-average desirability within the category.
Healthy desirability. Maintain current strategy.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Healthy momentum. Stay the course.
Rank 7 of 12 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthLosing ground to the category.
Underperforming category. Losing 13% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Trajectory points toward heating - prepare capture tactics for a compounding window.
Most likely transition: heating (4% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of October 2, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Current Year Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=2.130767105084147).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient for dynamic seasonal timing analysis, suggesting no major shifts in expected seasonal patterns.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Christmas gifting and celebrations
Window: Jun 7 – Jun 21
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline