Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Drunk Elephant Protini stagnates in a dormant prestige skincare market
Drunk Elephant Protini remains in a dormant regime with high stability at 95.8%, indicating entrenched stagnation in United States search interest. Despite a moderate momentum score of 45.6, the product's alpha score of 0.6 shows it is underperforming against peers. Recent reviews and a brand rebranding effort have not translated into increased attention, suggesting a disconnect between brand activities and consumer interest. The lack of movement in demand conditions suggests that without a material trigger, the product will continue to struggle in gaining market traction.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: the brand is tracking the category, not leading it. Attention data suggests no excess demand to absorb a price increase.
Attribution
Brand rebranding and reviews(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
No regime structure detected: all 261 weeks carry the label dormant. The current regime and its confidence describe the absence of movement, not a call. Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Prestige Skincare calendar. Analyst note: persistence=96%, confidence=100%, topology=k=2 (fixed, bayesian, hierarchical). Posterior on this brand partially pools toward the category prior (T=261 weeks, deviating 0.7σ from category mean); brand-level read borrows strength from peers.
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: United States
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-93.1% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Below-average desirability. Attention needed.
Desirability fading. Reassess positioning.
as of Oct 3, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 9 of 11 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthLosing ground to the category.
Underperforming category. Losing 40% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Signal may re-form at lower volume - watch for early validation before scaling.
Most likely transition: emerging (1% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +230.33% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
critical_media_reception(low)
Trend rate changed by -135.46% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by -131.90% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by +45.52% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Apr 5 – Apr 19
Recurring seasonal peak
Window: Sep 13 – Sep 27
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline