Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Laurent Perrier struggles as French demand remains stagnant
Laurent Perrier is currently in a dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.90 [0.86, 0.94], indicating a well-established but stagnant position in the French market. The brand's alpha score of 0.89 suggests it is underperforming relative to peers, with no immediate signs of momentum shift. Despite a neutral trend direction, the absence of exhaustion signals implies the current trend could persist unless disrupted by external factors.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: the brand is tracking the category with no excess demand to absorb a price increase.
Attribution
Stable demand conditions in France(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Champagne calendar. Analyst note: persistence=90%, confidence=94%, topology=k=4 (fixed, bayesian).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: France
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Falling (-2.1% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Healthy momentum. Stay the course.
Rank 3 of 12 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthLosing ground to the category.
Underperforming category. Losing 11% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Trajectory points toward heating - prepare capture tactics for a compounding window.
Most likely transition: heating (7% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by +5.66% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Trend rate changed by -5.51% (structural, 6w check)
Rationale Signals
unknown(low)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of October 2, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
+1 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Current Year Start
Week 3
Jan 12 - Jan 18
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=1 weeks, z=1.7033421812482727).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine a dynamic seasonal timing shift.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Christmas gifting and celebrations
Window: Feb 15 – Mar 1
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline