Data through September 27, 202613d lag
Nicolas Feuillatte faces underperformance in a stable champagne market
Nicolas Feuillatte is currently in a dormant regime with a high stability score of 0.9915, indicating a firmly established state. Despite this stability, the brand's alpha score of 0.89 suggests it is underperforming relative to the category, losing ground to competitors like Moet & Chandon and Ruinart, which show breakout alpha levels. This underperformance is reflected in the ADI score of 57.4, ranking fourth in the category but with a decline of 13.3 points, signaling a need for strategic reassessment to regain competitive positioning.
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix: stability is high and the regime is not shifting. Rebalancing now risks disrupting what is working.
Demand Reading
Demand pressure is stable: the brand is tracking the category with no excess demand to leverage for price increases.
Attribution
Stable demand conditions with underperformance relative to peers(medium confidence)
Recommendation
Hold or Exit
Risk
Stable: dormant. Current evidence suggests brand energy is established and unlikely to shift without a material trigger. Seasonal context has been adjusted for the Champagne calendar. Analyst note: persistence=99%, confidence=100%, topology=k=4 (fixed, bayesian).
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions are mixed - pricing action carries elevated risk and requires careful judgment.
Desirability trend with regime transitions· Attention: France
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Flat (+1.1% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of Oct 2, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthSteady state. Maintain current strategy.
Healthy momentum. Stay the course.
Rank 4 of 12 brands
Based on last 4 weeks · as of Sep 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthLosing ground to the category.
Underperforming category. Losing 11% relative ground.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
CalmSignal clear -- act decisively on current regime reading.
Trend Direction
→ NeutralConviction
No clear directional signal -- maintain current course.
Trend Sustainability
SustainableNo exhaustion signals -- current trend has room to run.
Trajectory points toward heating - prepare capture tactics for a compounding window.
Most likely transition: heating (2% probability)
Transition Probabilities
Signals aligned
Momentum and category performance are broadly consistent. No significant divergence detected between signals.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of October 2, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Current Year Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=2.163767364339876).
LLM Interpretation
Data is insufficient to determine any dynamic seasonal timing shifts for Nicolas Feuillatte.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Dec 6 – Dec 20
Christmas gifting and celebrations
Window: Feb 8 – Feb 22
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline