Analysis from February 26, 2026
Monetize & Protect
Key Tactics
Media Response
Hold current media mix and optimize for efficiency โ attention is stable and rebalancing risks disrupting what is working
Demand Reading
Demand is stable and regime-consistent. No attention-side signal to prompt a pricing review.
Recommendation
Monetize & Protect
Risk
Stable: Saturation Risk regime. Persistence=98%, bootstrap confidence=83%. Topology scan: k=4:BIC=1867.1, k=2:BIC=1977.9, k=3:BIC=2054.1. Event-adjusted for Champagne calendar.
Commercial Timing
Demand conditions support pricing action โ strong signals across the board.
Desirability trend with regime transitionsยท Attention: France
Smoothed equity signal (EMA 8 weeks)
Rising (+13.5% / 12w)
Desirability Index
Average desirability. Neither leading nor lagging.
Middle of the pack. Differentiation opportunity.
as of Feb 26, 2026
Momentum Score
Last monthPositive momentum. Accelerate growth initiatives.
Momentum critically low. Intervention likely needed.
Rank 7 of 14 brands
Based on last 4 weeks ยท as of Feb 15, 2026
Alpha Score
Last monthSignificantly outperforming the category trend.
Outperforming category by 2.2x. Structural breakout.
Based on last 4 weeks of velocity data
Attention share and momentum softmax share are comparative metrics and should be read against peer brands, not standalone.
Open Compare ViewThree lenses: clarity, direction, staying power
Signal Clarity
TurbulentSignal noisy -- defer tactical shifts until volatility subsides.
Trend Direction
โ BullishConviction
Trend supports offensive positioning -- lean into momentum.
Trend Sustainability
FatiguingMonitor closely -- begin contingency planning for reversal.
Desirability may retreat to incubation โ consider reignition strategies.
Most likely transition: Incubation (3% probability)
Transition Probabilities
True momentum
Both momentum and category outperformance confirm genuine brand strength. This is real demand, not a rising tide. Maximize capture and protect positioning.
Brand vs Category (Last month)
Signal Readings
Critical moments that shifted the brand's trajectory, based on the latent (denoised) signal
Trend rate changed by -6.24% (structural, 6w check)
Trend rate changed by +5.86% (structural, 6w check)
Seasonal timing is tracking baseline.
As of February 26, 2026
Status
On TimePhase Shift
0 weeks
Baseline Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Current Year Start
Week 2
Jan 5 - Jan 11
Phase Shift Map
52-week baseline vs current year
No clear timing arbitrage window versus baseline.
Anticipation: no material timing shift expected versus normal seasonality.
Seasonal timing is within expected range (shift=0 weeks, z=-0.25784219063189834).
LLM Interpretation
No LLM seasonal interpretation available yet for this brand/run.
Recurring seasonal lifts and troughs with rationales
Window: Dec 6 โ Dec 20
Christmas gifting and celebrations
Window: Jun 7 โ Jun 21
Recurring seasonal trough / post-peak normalization
Current week seasonal lift/drag relative to baseline